Wednesday, April 28, 2010

Global warming forecast upto year 2100

The sun driven "Plant Kingdom" (named by Linné ~1750) is the governor of the planet from a mass balance point of view. The atmosphere is selectively desucked on its CO2 during photosynthesis in an amount corresponding to 120 Gt C fixed annually into global biomass. The total amount of atmospheric natural C during the 1850:ies was ~460 Gt C corresponding to 280 ppm atmospheric CO2. During last 150 years man has, however, added ~366 Gt C of fossil origin to the atmosphere by combustion of fossil C from several sources originally accumulated by "fossil photosynthesis". However, about 250 Gt of this fossil C amount has been absorbed by the ocean and the land area in high pH areas in a slow process. In 2009 annually further 9 Gt C of fossil origin is added to the 110 Gt C already present in the atmosphere after 150 years of fossil C burning. The CO2 content in the atmosphere is therefore today 390 ppm and is now increasing some ppm annually in a most dangerous way. Therefore it seems that each decade ahead at least ~100 Gt of fossil C will be added to the atmosphere due to antropogenic activities and political "laissez-fair" attitudes. Even with the current attitudes shown from e g current EU-leaders the total amount of fossil C in the atmosphere to be sequestered during 2030 - 2100 may be of the size 350 - 500 Gt C if a global heat shock is to be counterbalanced.

This is still possible and is rightly stressed by e g Azar et al 2001. This current observed carbon C fraction of fossil origin present in the atmosphere is the "driving force" or causal agent behind current observed global warmng and its future dynamics still to a high extent determined by man stoechiometrically( e g the energy and atom regrouping changes observed during the combustion or photosynthesis process) and politically. If we don´t "precipitate" the fossil C fraction present in the atmosphere by intensified photosynthesis followed by sequestering (=long term stable storage during 50 - 100 years) this will cause now observed initial phases of an accelerating global warming to easily turn into a cataclysmic global heat shock within perhaps just a few (3 - 4) decades after the global temperature has passed ~2°C over the natural global temperature average and we can not further control. Currently it is, however, controllable if manking act stoechiometrically adequate during a few decades further with start immediately - not in 2050. The current approaching global warming process is to at least 95% caused by antropogenic activities. Hadley Met Office, UK has publiched a series of detailed scenarious what is to be expected up till 2050 (Cox et al, Nature 2000). Peter Cox conclude that during a heat shock e g UK will thereby get a climate now known from northern Africa. This state will probably be observed for some hundred years.

Climatologists say that the final temperatures during a global heat shock are expected to be ~20°C warmer on average on Planet Earth than today. Climatologists also stress , however, that periodically and regionally this means temperatures on all parts of the planet up to ~40°C warmer than today. During these periods essentially all landlife will be killed. From the paleontologists we know of at least two major such heat shocks 55 and 251 million years ago. At these events up to 95% of also sea life was suddenly killed and forced evolution into brand new directions. The Hadley Meteorological Center (UK) climate modeling shows we have now in 2009 perhaps about 6 years to find a solution and a program plan, but within 30 years the final payback from the fossil era must have been done, Cox say, if we want to stop these cataclysmic scenarios (Prof Peter Cox, Hadley Center in BBC "Planet Earth" series with David Attenborrough narrator on 60 minutes about "Global Dimming", 2005 ).

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